Terminology

Comparisons for IUs with baseline prevalence > 5%

2D comparisons

3D comparisons

By pass/fail category: beta (baseline and 2020), year stopped MDA, baseline TF, overall prevalence reduction, and effective MDA rounds

For all IUs: separate IUs based on outcome of 1st survey of each type (baseline, impact, surveillance) and reported TF prevalence

Proportion of simulations that exceeded 5% TF prevalence

  • Of note is that many IUs that passed their first impact survey still have reasonably high proportions of simulations that exceeded 5% prevalence

Median simulated prevalence

  • For IUs that passed their first impact survey, the median prevalence is close to <5%, even though many had high proportions of simulations that exceeded 5% prevalence (previous plot)

Median beta at the time of 1st survey per IU

Median beta by year that change occurred in the model

Disaggregate failed IUs

IUs that failed at least 1 impact survey

  • Separated by whether or not the last survey (of any type) was passed after failing at least 1 impact survey

IUs that failed at least 1 surveillance survey

  • Separated by whether or not the last survey (of any type) was passed after failing at least 1 surveillance survey