Trachoma Summaries

Terminology

• “Passed” refers to those IUs that didn’t fail any impact or surveillance surveys, or if no impact or surveillance surveys were performed, the minimum TF prevalence was <5%.

• “Failed” refers to IUs that either failed at least 1 impact survey (TF > 5%) or failed at least 1 surveillance survey (TF > 5%) (not mutually exclusive)

• Effective MDA rounds \(=\) MDA rounds recorded in ESPEN \(\times\) estimated effective coverage

• “Reduction” refers to the percentage reduction in the relevant parameter (beta/prevalence). So more negative means a larger reduction in the parameter

Comparisons for IUs with baseline prevalence > 5%

2D comparisons

3D comparisons

By pass/fail category: beta (baseline and 2020), year stopped MDA, baseline TF, overall prevalence reduction, and effective MDA rounds

• Note: countries still undergoing MDA as at 2021 shown as “stopping” in 2030 i.e. yellow

For all IUs: separate IUs based on outcome of 1st survey of each type (baseline, impact, surveillance) and reported TF prevalence

Proportion of simulations that exceeded 5% TF prevalence

• Of note is that many IUs that passed their first impact survey still have reasonably high proportions of simulations that exceeded 5% prevalence

Median simulated prevalence

• For IUs that passed their first impact survey, the median prevalence is close to <5%, even though many had high proportions of simulations that exceeded 5% prevalence (previous plot)

Median beta at the time of 1st survey per IU

Median beta by year that change occurred in the model

Disaggregate failed IUs

IUs that failed at least 1 impact survey

• Separated by whether or not the last survey (of any type) was passed after failing at least 1 impact survey

IUs that failed at least 1 surveillance survey

• Separated by whether or not the last survey (of any type) was passed after failing at least 1 surveillance survey